🧠 1. How Does the Moneyball Model Work?
Moneyball v2.1 is an AI + Physics Ensemble Model engineered to project daily MLB Home Run probabilities. It synthesizes 18 Statcast batted-ball metrics, real-time stadium microclimate aerodynamics, pitcher pitch-family vulnerability, career Batter-vs-Pitcher (BvP) logs, and 21-day rolling Hitter Form Index (HFI) momentum into a unified predictive board.
👑 2. The Golden Standard (Trifecta Rating)
👑 The 3 Core Pillars of High-Conviction HRs
Model Super-Boost
Backtested on multi-season Statcast data, the highest-conviction home run environment occurs when all three historical physical pillars align:
- Vulnerable Pitcher (85.7% Historical Link): Pitcher HR/9 ≥1.2, xSLG ≥.460, or high Blowup score.
- Arsenal Damage Matchup (78.6% Historical Link): Batter has Damage Usage ≥48% against pitcher's primary pitch mix.
- Pull-Side Tailwind (67.9% Historical Link): Real-time wind blowing out ≥+3.0 mph toward batter's pull field (LF for RHB, RF for LHB).
Safety Gates & Model Boost: When these 3 pillars align and the batter passes contact/power safety gates (K% <35%, EV90 ≥94.5 mph), the model awards +8.0% SimHR, +5 FullStack Points, and locks in a 90–100% Signal Gauge.
📊 3. Player Card Results Bar Explained
FS (FullStack Composite 0–100)
The master slate ranking. Blends SimHR% (22%), Edge vs Market (18%), PowerStack (17%), Pitcher Vulnerability (14%), Pitch Matchup (10%), Hard-Hit % (8%), SwingPath (6%), and Form (5%).
SimHR% (Simulated Probability)
True physical probability of homering tonight. Derived from exit velocity, launch angles, pitcher vulnerability, park factors, and microclimate wind vectors.
Env Δ (Environment Delta)
Net percentage added or subtracted from the hitter's baseline HR rate purely due to tonight's temperature, elevation, humidity, and wind physics.
P.ADJ (Handedness Park Factor)
Park HR factor tailored specifically to the batter's handedness (LHB vs RHB). Values ≥1.10x indicate elite short-porch boosting environments.
Divergence & PropFilter
Divergence: The mathematical betting edge vs sportsbook lines. PropFilter: Tracks clearance across 4 Statcast hurdles (Barrel ≥10%, Hard-Hit ≥32%, ISO ≥.200, Park ≥+5%).
Recent HR (5-Game Timeline)
5-game visual history with glowing red dots (🔴) for HRs and status tags identifying hot streaks, cold slumps, or rhythm breakout patterns.
Pitch Mix (Arsenal Damage Table)
Pitcher's Fastball (FB), Breaking (BR), and Offspeed (OS) usage percentages alongside batter's expected slugging (xSLG) and rating (CRUSH, EDGE, OK, WEAK).
💨 Weather & Compass Dial
Real-time stadium wind velocity, temperature, and 360° rotating compass dial showing pull-field wind impact (e.g. +4.5 out 1B/RF).
🎯 4. Model Tiers Guide
Tier 1 (Elite Plays): FullStack ≥76 & SimHR ≥45%. Prime physics, elite matchup, and high market divergence. Capped at Top 16 plays per slate to prevent dilution.
Tier 2 (Strong Plays): FullStack ≥66. Excellent power profile and favorable pitcher/park matchups.
Tier 3 (Solid Contenders): FullStack ≥56. Above-average baseline plays with targetable upside.
Tier 4 (Value Plays): FullStack ≥42. Secondary slate targets with specific matchup triggers.
Tier 5 (Speculative / Low HR): FullStack <42. Lower confidence or heavy pitcher/park suppression.
🏷️ 5. Complete Badges & Triggers Glossary
👑 Golden: High-conviction Trifecta active (Pitcher Vuln + High DMG + Pull Wind).
⚡ Woke: Breakout trigger — starting hot streak after a cold stretch (L5G pattern 00001).
🔁 Due: Alternating rhythm pattern ending on 0 (e.g. 01010), due to homer today.
🔥 Streak: Active multi-game home run streak (e.g. 00111).
🧊 Slump (X G): Extended drought tracker (≥12 games without a home run).
⚡ (Name Icon): Power Baseline Verified — EV90 ≥94 mph or Bat Speed ≥74 mph.
📈 EV90 Surge: 90th percentile exit velocity surged +1.5+ mph over the last 3 games.
💥 Blowup: Pitcher has high recent vulnerability (HR/9 >1.5, xSLG >.500, xERA >4.0).
🔥 Pen / Pen Q: Bullpen fatigue and handedness quality vulnerability vs hitter's side.
💨 AfterParty: High-EV batter (EV90 ≥94 mph) whose power is amplified by a tailwind.
🎭 Shadow Steal: Batting directly ahead of a feared slugger, receiving fastballs in the zone.
🎯 LHB/RHB Vuln: Pitcher allows extreme HR/9 split to batter's handedness (ratio >1.5x).
🎯 Pull-Air %: Pull fly-ball rate; benefits disproportionately from short pull-porches.
🛠️ 6. Interactive Controls & Analysis Popups
- Sort Bar: Click any header sort button (
FullStack, SimHR%, Signal %, Park Factor) to sort the slate instantly.
- 🎲 Live Odds Recalculation: Type any sportsbook line (e.g.
+350) directly into the odds box on any card and press Enter to instantly recalculate Divergence and Edge.
- 📊 Gamelog Popup: Inspect per-game logs, game-by-game total bases/HRs, and hit-rate filters (L5G, L10G, Home/Away, H2H vs team).
- 🎯 Arsenal Matrix Popup: Deep dive into batter xSLG & Run Values per 100 pitches vs pitcher's arsenal (Fastball, Breaking, Offspeed).
- 📋 PA Log Popup: Review pitch-by-pitch plate-appearance history between the batter and starting pitcher since 2020.
🔥 7. Trending Props & Hit Rates Guide
The Trending Props Engine automatically scans verified MLB game logs across every starting batter on today's slate to uncover high-probability betting trends, active hit streaks, and consistency metrics.
9 Prop Categories
Covers Hits (0.5+, 1.5+), H+R+RBI (1.5+, 2.5+), Total Bases (1.5+, 2.5+), Home Runs (0.5+), Singles (0.5+, 1.5+), Extra Base Hits, Runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases.
Hit Rate Timeframes
Toggle between L10 (primary momentum), L5 (recent form), L20 (stability), and 2026 Season baseline, plus Home/Away and H2H splits.
FS Score & FullStack Sort
Cards feature the player's HR model FullStack score (FS). Click ⇅ Sort by FullStack to instantly prioritize top model conviction plays.
🎯 Vulnerable Pitchers
The 🎯 target emoji spotlights opposing pitchers with high HR/9 (≥1.15) or blowup risk, indicating favorable power & contact conditions.
- Sequence Mini-Bar: 10 visual dots displaying the batter's exact game-by-game stat values over the last 10 games (Green = Hit, Dark = Miss).
- 📊 View Gamelog & Hit Rates: Click any player card button to open interactive bar charts with exact stat labels above each bar, opponent tags (
@OPP), and threshold lines.
- Quick Category Filters: Filter by specific prop markets or min hit rates (
⭐ 90%+, ⚡ 80%+, 🔥 70%+, or Streak ≥3G).
⚾ 8. Game ML, Run Line & Totals Model Guide
The Game ML / Run Line / Total Engine runs a 10,000-trial Poisson Monte Carlo simulation per matchup to project full-game scores, win probabilities, run-line cover edges (+/- 1.5), and Over/Under total lines.
10,000-Trial Inning Sim
Simulates Starter (Innings 1–5), Transition (Inning 6), Bullpen (Innings 7–8), and realistic 9th-inning home walk-off / lead truncation mechanics.
Platoon Split Matching
Lineup offensive expectations are dynamically adjusted against starter handedness (vs LHP / vs RHP) using official team split win rates.
Vegas ATS & O/U Ledger
Cross-references 30-team Against The Spread (RL) cover rates, Net Unit ROI, and Over/Under tendencies from VegasInsider.
Starred Conviction Edges
Categorizes bets by mathematical divergence: ⭐⭐⭐ 3-Star Best Bet (Edge ≥7.5%), ⭐⭐ 2-Star Value (Edge ≥4.0%), ⭐ 1-Star Lean (Edge ≥1.5%).
📊 9. Granular ESPN Splits & Situational Awareness
The model ingests comprehensive ESPN Situational Split Tables for both batters and pitchers, fusing situational context directly with high-frequency Statcast physics:
Platoon Splits (vs. LHP / vs. RHP)
Ingests batter BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and AB/HR against opposing pitcher handedness, weighted alongside pitcher splits allowed against LHB/RHB.
Venue & Time Splits
Applies Home vs. Away and Day vs. Night splits to calibrate baseline offensive run expectations and environmental deltas.
Count & Leverage Modeling
Evaluates slugging in hitter-friendly counts (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1) vs. two-strike defense (0-2, 1-2, 2-2) paired with base-state leverage (Bases Empty vs. RISP).
Rolling Form Windows
Multi-timeframe form trajectory analyzing Last 7, 15, and 30 Days alongside monthly split progression to detect hot surges and cooling trends.
🎲 10. MCSimHR% 10,000-Trial Plate-Appearance Simulation
The MCSimHR% Engine simulates 10,000 physical plate appearances per batter for every matchup on the slate, establishing an empirical Monte Carlo baseline alongside the analytical physics model.
Physical Trajectory Modeling
Each trial samples exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), bat speed, and aerodynamic drag coefficients based on stadium barometric elevation and temperature.
Pitcher & Arsenal Integration
Samples opposing pitcher pitch distribution (Fastball, Breaking, Offspeed), zone location tendencies, and TTO3 vulnerability to simulate true contact rates.
SimHR% vs. MCSimHR% Blending
Fuses continuous analytical physics (SimHR%) with discrete Monte Carlo simulation (MCSimHR%) to eliminate statistical variance and lock in true probability.
Dynamic Market Edge
Compares the combined simulated home run probability against live sportsbook odds to output accurate expected value (+EV) and divergence ratings.
📱 11. Device Compatibility & Universal Access
Moneyball v2.1 is built as a high-performance progressive web app with zero installation required, perfectly responsive across every screen and OS:
📱 Smartphones & Mobile
Optimized for iOS (iPhone Safari) & Android (Chrome/Samsung). Features touch tabs, collapsible cards, and quick odds recalculation.
💻 Desktops & Laptops
Engineered for Mac, Windows, and Linux on Chrome, Safari, Edge, and Brave with expansive multi-column analytics grids.
📟 Tablets & iPads
Fluid portrait & landscape layouts on iPad and Android tablets with responsive split-screen charts and drawer controls.
🌐 Whop App & Webviews
Native in-app performance within the Whop iOS/Android apps, member hub, and embedded frames with instant real-time sync.
