HR prediction model
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Moneyball MLB Analytics v2.1 • 10,000-Trial PA Monte Carlo & Aerodynamic Statcast Physics Simulation Engine • Developed for High-Edge Home Run & Batter Prop Betting
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Complete reference guide to calculations, metrics, badges, and interactive tools
Moneyball v2.1 is an AI + Physics Ensemble Model engineered to project daily MLB Home Run probabilities. It synthesizes 18 Statcast batted-ball metrics, real-time stadium microclimate aerodynamics, pitcher pitch-family vulnerability, career Batter-vs-Pitcher (BvP) logs, and 21-day rolling Hitter Form Index (HFI) momentum into a unified predictive board.
Backtested on multi-season Statcast data, the highest-conviction home run environment occurs when all three historical physical pillars align:
Safety Gates & Model Boost: When these 3 pillars align and the batter passes contact/power safety gates (K% <35%, EV90 ≥94.5 mph), the model awards +8.0% SimHR, +5 FullStack Points, and locks in a 90–100% Signal Gauge.
The master slate ranking. Blends SimHR% (22%), Edge vs Market (18%), PowerStack (17%), Pitcher Vulnerability (14%), Pitch Matchup (10%), Hard-Hit % (8%), SwingPath (6%), and Form (5%).
True physical probability of homering tonight. Derived from exit velocity, launch angles, pitcher vulnerability, park factors, and microclimate wind vectors.
Net percentage added or subtracted from the hitter's baseline HR rate purely due to tonight's temperature, elevation, humidity, and wind physics.
Park HR factor tailored specifically to the batter's handedness (LHB vs RHB). Values ≥1.10x indicate elite short-porch boosting environments.
Divergence: The mathematical betting edge vs sportsbook lines. PropFilter: Tracks clearance across 4 Statcast hurdles (Barrel ≥10%, Hard-Hit ≥32%, ISO ≥.200, Park ≥+5%).
5-game visual history with glowing red dots (🔴) for HRs and status tags identifying hot streaks, cold slumps, or rhythm breakout patterns.
Pitcher's Fastball (FB), Breaking (BR), and Offspeed (OS) usage percentages alongside batter's expected slugging (xSLG) and rating (CRUSH, EDGE, OK, WEAK).
Real-time stadium wind velocity, temperature, and 360° rotating compass dial showing pull-field wind impact (e.g. +4.5 out 1B/RF).
FullStack, SimHR%, Signal %, Park Factor) to sort the slate instantly.+350) directly into the odds box on any card and press Enter to instantly recalculate Divergence and Edge.The Trending Props Engine automatically scans verified MLB game logs across every starting batter on today's slate to uncover high-probability betting trends, active hit streaks, and consistency metrics.
Covers Hits (0.5+, 1.5+), H+R+RBI (1.5+, 2.5+), Total Bases (1.5+, 2.5+), Home Runs (0.5+), Singles (0.5+, 1.5+), Extra Base Hits, Runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases.
Toggle between L10 (primary momentum), L5 (recent form), L20 (stability), and 2026 Season baseline, plus Home/Away and H2H splits.
Cards feature the player's HR model FullStack score (FS). Click ⇅ Sort by FullStack to instantly prioritize top model conviction plays.
The 🎯 target emoji spotlights opposing pitchers with high HR/9 (≥1.15) or blowup risk, indicating favorable power & contact conditions.
@OPP), and threshold lines.⭐ 90%+, ⚡ 80%+, 🔥 70%+, or Streak ≥3G).The Game ML / Run Line / Total Engine runs a 10,000-trial Poisson Monte Carlo simulation per matchup to project full-game scores, win probabilities, run-line cover edges (+/- 1.5), and Over/Under total lines.
Simulates Starter (Innings 1–5), Transition (Inning 6), Bullpen (Innings 7–8), and realistic 9th-inning home walk-off / lead truncation mechanics.
Lineup offensive expectations are dynamically adjusted against starter handedness (vs LHP / vs RHP) using official team split win rates.
Cross-references 30-team Against The Spread (RL) cover rates, Net Unit ROI, and Over/Under tendencies from VegasInsider.
Categorizes bets by mathematical divergence: ⭐⭐⭐ 3-Star Best Bet (Edge ≥7.5%), ⭐⭐ 2-Star Value (Edge ≥4.0%), ⭐ 1-Star Lean (Edge ≥1.5%).
The model ingests comprehensive ESPN Situational Split Tables for both batters and pitchers, fusing situational context directly with high-frequency Statcast physics:
Ingests batter BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and AB/HR against opposing pitcher handedness, weighted alongside pitcher splits allowed against LHB/RHB.
Applies Home vs. Away and Day vs. Night splits to calibrate baseline offensive run expectations and environmental deltas.
Evaluates slugging in hitter-friendly counts (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1) vs. two-strike defense (0-2, 1-2, 2-2) paired with base-state leverage (Bases Empty vs. RISP).
Multi-timeframe form trajectory analyzing Last 7, 15, and 30 Days alongside monthly split progression to detect hot surges and cooling trends.
The MCSimHR% Engine simulates 10,000 physical plate appearances per batter for every matchup on the slate, establishing an empirical Monte Carlo baseline alongside the analytical physics model.
Each trial samples exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), bat speed, and aerodynamic drag coefficients based on stadium barometric elevation and temperature.
Samples opposing pitcher pitch distribution (Fastball, Breaking, Offspeed), zone location tendencies, and TTO3 vulnerability to simulate true contact rates.
Fuses continuous analytical physics (SimHR%) with discrete Monte Carlo simulation (MCSimHR%) to eliminate statistical variance and lock in true probability.
Compares the combined simulated home run probability against live sportsbook odds to output accurate expected value (+EV) and divergence ratings.
Moneyball v2.1 is built as a high-performance progressive web app with zero installation required, perfectly responsive across every screen and OS:
Optimized for iOS (iPhone Safari) & Android (Chrome/Samsung). Features touch tabs, collapsible cards, and quick odds recalculation.
Engineered for Mac, Windows, and Linux on Chrome, Safari, Edge, and Brave with expansive multi-column analytics grids.
Fluid portrait & landscape layouts on iPad and Android tablets with responsive split-screen charts and drawer controls.
Native in-app performance within the Whop iOS/Android apps, member hub, and embedded frames with instant real-time sync.